Education Intelligence Agency

Public Education Research, Analysis and Investigations

Yes, the undead California teacher shortage was revived last week by the Center for the Future of Teaching and Learning (CFTL) in a report titled, "California's Teaching Force 2004: Issues and Trends." (It's available in full at http://www.cftl.org) The center's sponsors and task force read like a who's who of the California education establishment, and the report is a fine piece of statistical work. Its headline conclusion is that the state will need 60,000 new teachers in the next five years, and 106,000 new teachers in the next 10 years. Its preferred solutions mostly involve more funding.

The Sacramento Bee lead paragraph reporting this conclusion was typical of the coverage: "Local school officials are bracing for an anticipated statewide teacher shortage that could be exacerbated by a looming wave of retirements and tough new federal requirements."

But these numbers are actually a much more modest projection than what we have been hearing (see "The Incredible Shrinking California Teacher Shortage" in the June 9, 2003 EIA Communiqué). Until recently, the California Teachers Association was still claiming we needed 200,000 new teachers over the next decade.

Even the smaller predicted shortage is based on a projected tripling of the retirement rate by 2007-08 due to the retirement of baby-boomer teachers. Even if accurate, the report fails to determine which teachers will retire.

The distinction is critical because the report laudably disaggregates enrollment by grade level, and the results are eye-opening. High school enrollment can expect double-digit increases, while grade school enrollment, especially in the earliest grades, is decreasing.

So, although the report barely addresses it, the real teacher "shortage" problem is once again one of distribution. In the mid- to late 1990s, California hired tens of thousands of elementary school teachers in order to lower K-3 class sizes to 20, and did it in the midst of a huge enrollment spurt in the early grades.

Now those same kids are moving into the upper grades. With enrollment dropping in the early grades, we will have a surplus of K-3 teachers and a shortage of high school teachers – unless that increase in retirements comes primarily from K-3 teachers.

The future danger to California public education is not a teacher shortage, but more and more teachers out of field. Kids move from grade 8 to 9 without much of a problem, but a high school subject teaching credential is different from an elementary school teaching credential. If state policymakers want to nip this problem in the bud, they need to streamline the credential process for current teachers who want to make the jump from elementary to high school.

An aging teacher workforce is part of an aging population, but an aging population also means fewer kids to educate. The state public education system is best employed to address the leads and lags in enrollment and hiring as kids pass through their 12-year stay, not to offer up more scary shortage scenarios in a bid for increased funding. This "shortage" will also wither away, until the college professor shortage rears its ugly head in four years.

2)  Teachers Enjoy Benefits of School Choice. A couple of weeks ago, EIA reported on a stink in Baltimore County, Maryland, over limiting the voluntary transfers of teachers defined as highly qualified under the No Child Left Behind Act. This morning's Sarasota Herald Tribune (http://www.heraldtribune.com) has a series of articles addressing a similar issue in a broader way. Why are the least qualified and most inexperienced teachers in the worst schools?

The answer is simple: They are also the least able to choose where they want to work. As the story puts it, "Top teachers flee poor schools for better working conditions," and "Florida offers few perks for teachers who decided to stick it out in poor schools."

This dilemma has prompted some to call for restrictions on teacher movement similar to the arrangement in Baltimore County. But, unsurprisingly, union officials are opposed. "With all the problems recruiting and retaining, districts don't want to get into limiting where a good teacher can go," Florida Education Association spokesman Mark Pudlow told the Herald Tribune. "Otherwise they'll just jump over to a neighboring district."

Pudlow is right, because even in public education we still have a relatively free labor market. What we don't have is a free consumer market. Good students and good parents would also like to jump over to a neighboring district when schools are bad, but who is standing in their way?

3)  NEA New York, NYSUT Merger Plan Announcements Have Different Tones. NEA New York and New York State United Teachers (NYSUT) finally got around to publicly announcing their plans to merge, though they saw fit to emphasize different aspects of that plan.

NEA New York noted the 51-6 margin in favor of merger among its board of directors and promoted the idea that a merger would provide NEA New York with "additional services and resources, a stronger voice in the state legislature and the State Education Department, and lower dues." The only board votes against merger came from Buffalo and East Rochester.

NYSUT's announcement, on the other hand, mentioned no expected benefits to merger, but merely that the drafted plan "is a starting point for the next phase of talks that could lead to the unification of two education unions in New York state."

NYSUT President Thomas Hobart informed members that NYSUT's structure would remain intact. "Many details still need to be worked out and agreed to by the unions' governing bodies before unification could take place," he said.

Hobart's restrained tone might be related to NYSUT staff union problems. NYSUT's support staff employees, represented by the Communication Workers of America, held an informational picket last Friday. The contract for about 160 staffers expires on December 31, with health care benefits the major bargaining issue.

4)  More Evidence That No-Strike Laws Are Stupid. On Wednesday, members of the St. Louis Teachers Union are expected to vote on whether to strike. If the union does strike, it will be for the fourth time in the last 31 years.

Oh, I forgot. Teacher strikes are illegal in Missouri.

"Do you think I would like going to jail? I wouldn't," union president Mary Armstrong told the Associated Press. "But I will if I have to because our cause is just."

The district is offering salary increases but demanding more work days.

The purpose of no-strike laws is to prevent strikes (duh). But when unions strike anyway, management is often baffled about what to do. State law does not specify a penalty for striking, and it does require schools to be in session for a certain number of days. Sending people to jail for not showing up to work is not only pointless, it's counterproductive and bad PR to boot.

When a worker has no legitimate excuse for chronic absenteeism, he or she is generally dismissed. District officials usually find this drastic action to be impractical, or they lack the intestinal fortitude to try it. So why have the law in the first place?

5)  Georgia Union Tells Zell Farewell. It took some time for this tidbit to reach EIA, but better late than never. At their October representative assembly, delegates from the Georgia Association of Educators (GAE) decided they could no longer stomach presenting the annual Zell Miller Friend of Education Award to their honorees. So they voted to rename it the Georgia Association of Educators Friend of Education Award.

Before Miller became the highest profile Democrat supporting President Bush, he was the darling of NEA and its Georgia affiliate, receiving accolades for increasing teacher pay during his two terms as governor of Georgia. Miller himself received the NEA Friend of Education award in 1998 after being nominated by GAE. "Governor Miller has put public education first," then-GAE President Grady Yancey said at the time. "We are proud of him and his record, and we are proud that the National Education Association has chosen to honor him."

6)  Honor Fallen Soldiers by Educating Their Children. This is the time of year when we think about charity, and I know of no worthier cause than that of the Special Operations Warrior Foundation. The organization provides scholarships and counseling support to the children of special operations personnel killed in the line of duty. More than 530 children receive funds from the foundation, with 90 currently attending college. For more information, see the foundation's web site at http://www.specialops.org or contact them at PO Box 14385, Tampa FL 33690, 813-805-9400 or toll free 877-337-7693.

7)  Quote of the Week #1. "How do you overfund a school?" – Idaho Education Association director Maggie Calica, commenting on a report by the Minnesota Center for Public Finance Research that showed about half of that state's districts received more money per student than necessary to ensure an adequate education. (December 13 Idaho State Journal)

Quote of the Week #2. "i am writing a essay on writing i work for this company and my boss want me to help improve the workers writing skills can yall help me with some information thank you" – a message sent to R. Craig Hogan, head of an online school for business writing, from a prospective client. (December 7 New York Times)

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