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1) Two Million New Teachers Needed in the Next 10
Years! Or Is It the Last 10 Years? NEA Executive Director John Wilson
visited South Dakota last week, prompting a
local newspaper story with the lede, "The head of the National Education
Association says the nation is facing an unprecedented teacher shortage,
with as many as two million new teachers needed within the next decade."
Wilson, naturally, believes it is time for Americans to
"step up to the plate and invest in education." But it's hard to take Wilson
seriously if he really believes the situation is unprecedented, since NEA
has been making the "two million new teachers in 10 years" claim for, well,
almost 10 years.
Exhibit A is this
September 20, 1998 op-ed from NEA President Bob Chase, who foresees a
calamity as "a tidal wave of teacher retirements creates a need for
two million new teachers over the next decade."
As you might expect, what constitutes a
"new teacher" does not lend itself so neatly to such sound-bites, since a
teacher who transfers from District A to District B is a "new teacher" for
District B. Nevertheless, researchers recognize the importance of properly
defining terms, and reports such as
this one, excerpted in Education Statistics Quarterly, examine
all the angles.
I deliberately chose it because it was
written by William J. Hussar in 1999, and it is titled "Predicting the Need
for Newly Hired Teachers in the United States to 2008-09." Accounting for a
number of variables, Hussar concluded that America would need between 1.7
million and 2.7 million new teachers by 2008-09. He expected about 75,000
teachers per year to retire.
Now if the National Center for
Education Statistics will provide me with a substantial grant, I'll be more
than happy to compare Hussar's 1999 predictions of newly hired teachers with
the actual numbers. However, I don't think it's necessary. Because one of
two things must have happened: a) the projections were off, and so Wilson's
for the next 10 years are probably also off; or b) they were correct, and
somehow the United States managed to hire the required number of teachers.
Indeed, it appears we did better than that, since by NEA's own accounting we
have 500,000 more K-12 teachers than we had 10 years ago.
2) Lid Tight on AFT Disaffiliation Battle in
Colorado. Last Tuesday, EIA broke a story on Intercepts about a
disaffiliation attempt in Colorado that resembled a
previous battle in Puerto Rico. As I wrote:
"Accounts vary, as they say in the news biz, but what isn't in dispute is
that the executive council of the Colorado Federation of Public Employees (CFPE)
- 1,000 members strong at last check - voted on October 20 to disaffiliate
from AFT. CFPE President Jo Romero notified AFT the same day.
"An October 24 letter from AFT President Ed McElroy in response claimed the
council's vote was without legal effect, since it violated CFPE's
constitutional requirement to place affiliations to a rank-and-file vote,
requiring a two-thirds majority.
"Additionally, McElroy accused CFPE of being at least four months behind in
dues payments. He placed AFT Colorado President Dave Sanger in charge of
CFPE's relations with the AFL-CIO, central labor councils, and state
government.
"For its part, AFT Colorado stated, 'Most troubling are indications that an
agent of an outside union may have been involved improperly in orchestrating
this failed hijack attempt. The facts of the matter are being explored and
will be shared as they come to light.'
"CFPE is standing fast. 'It is disappointing to learn that the AFT may be
contacting CFPE members to make assertions about CFPE, its officers and
council members that are simply inaccurate,' the council wrote to members."
Later in the week, CFPE issued a further denial that its decision was
prompted by a relationship with any other union. "Be aware that CFPE and its
members are not part of any coalition, merger or joint effort with SEIU-CAPE,
AFSCME or AFT," it said.
The backdrop is an
executive order signed by Colorado Gov. Bill Ritter to allow "partnerships"
in which state employee organizations would negotiate with the government.
It looks, acts, and quacks like collective bargaining, but all parties deny
it is collective bargaining.
3) United Federation of Non-Teachers. The
United Federation of Teachers in New York City celebrated
surpassing the 200,000 member mark, with the induction of 28,000 home
day care workers in a recent union authorization election. This makes UFT
the largest union local in the nation.
The breakdown of the 201,486 members is interesting,
though. Others have already noted the effect on policy of UFT's 54,000
retired members, but it's more eye-opening to see that only 118,000 (58.6%)
are "in-service educators."
With enrollment falling steadily in New York City, it's
conceivable we could see a future where working K-12 teachers are a minority
in their own organization.
4) This Week's Message from Beyond.
Shanker likes peer review.
5) Nano-News. This week's infinitesimal
information:
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Aunt Polly's Revenge – The executive committee of the Mansfield School
Employees Association (Ohio) impeached union president Tom Sawyer in a 39-2
vote last week.
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Bad News for Kentucky Boyfriends - It's illegal in the state to
encourage a teenage girl to disobey her parents.
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Royal Flush - A Las Vegas union isn't all that crazy about card check.
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Appomattox Now – Southwestern College's attempt to secede from the
California Teachers Association is crushed.
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Shocker – There are provisions in Ohio teacher contracts that contradict
state law.
6) Last Week's Intercepts. EIA's blog,
Intercepts, covered these topics from November 5-12:
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Shanker Supports Free Cell Phone Plan. Can you hear me now?
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A New Way to Read Intercepts. Sent automatically to your e-mail
inbox.
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Battle Won. Pillaging Begins. Victor. Spoils. You get the idea.
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You Could Write This Stuff in Advance. Predictions that the voucher
initiative defeat will usher in a new era of school reform in Utah. Just
like it did in California in 1993.
7) Quote of the Week: Life Imitates Intercepts
Edition. "Valerie Bertinelli Reveals Diet Was Partial Fast to Support
NCLB Reauthorization." – headline of
September 13, 2007 EIA Intercepts.
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"So I met with Congressman Wamp and then Chairperson George Miller and other
people and they said, 'Look, NCLB is going to be up for reauthorization,
let's see if we can get something in there.'… 'There are these things called
multiple measures, and this is where the school gets a report card and if
the report is good and they get kids to excel, their grade goes up for the
school.' So I said, 'Great – but where's PE? Let's make that a multiple
measure.'" – Fitness guru Richard Simmons, in an exclusive November 7 blog
interview with
The Quick and the Ed. |
