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1) EIA Exclusive: NEA
Post-Election Analysis Reveals Congressional Strategy for 2009.
The National Education Association was able to persuade 65
percent of its members to vote for Barack Obama for President and had a hand
in moving member support to Obama in virtually all of the battleground
states, according to internal NEA information obtained by the Education
Intelligence Agency.
Obama's support
among NEA members exceeded the
62 percent Bill Clinton received in 1996, and the 59 percent Al Gore
received in 2000.
NEA commissioned
two polling firms to compile data on the 2008 election and then asked its
Campaign and Elections and Government Relations staff to analyze it for
lessons learned and strategies to use during the term of the next Congress.
The union sees the election results as a tribute to its political
operations, but also recognizes that education issues will be on the back
burner during the early months of the Obama administration.
First the results. Detailed national
figures were unavailable, but the polling firm of Greenberg Quinlan Rosner
broke down the final voting preferences of both NEA members and their
households in battleground states, comparing the results to their
preferences during the summer months.
Here are the results for NEA members in
14 battleground states. The first figure for each is the result of summer
polling, while the second figure is post-election polling. The number in
parentheses is the net increase or decrease in the margin between Obama and
McCain from the first to the second poll.
Colorado – from 66-25 Obama to 74-22
Obama (+11)
Florida – from 57-35 Obama to 66-32
Obama (+12)
Iowa – from 60-30 Obama to 72-26 Obama
(+16)
Michigan – from 56-31 Obama to 64-32
Obama (+7)
Minnesota – from 69-25 Obama to 72-25
Obama (+3)
Missouri – from 69-27 Obama to 70-29
Obama (-1)
Nevada – from 57-33 Obama to 63-33 Obama
(+6)
New Hampshire – from 72-22 Obama to
75-23 Obama (+2)
New Mexico – from 61-30 Obama to 65-33
Obama (+1)
North Carolina – from 56-32 Obama to
65-32 Obama (+9)
Ohio* - from 46-46 to 57-38 Obama (+19)
Oregon – from 75-20 Obama to 74-23 Obama
(-4)
Pennsylvania – from 53-41 Obama to 62-36
Obama (+14)
Virginia – from 66-28 Obama to 69-29
Obama (+2)
*Ohio's original polling was done in the
spring.
Here is a similar comparison for NEA
members plus members of their households. These figures include 12 of the 14
battleground states, but not New Mexico and Oregon.
Colorado – from 60-36 Obama to 60-38
Obama (-2)
Florida – from 57-38 Obama to 65-33
Obama (+13)
Iowa – from 59-34 Obama to 57-40 Obama
(-8)
Michigan – from 51-38 Obama to 54-37
Obama (+4)
Minnesota – from 61-35 Obama to 60-37
Obama (-3)
Missouri – from 56-40 Obama to 53-44
Obama (-7)
Nevada – from 48-41 Obama to 58-39 Obama
(+12)
New Hampshire – from 61-32 Obama to
60-36 Obama (-5)
North Carolina – from 51-42 Obama to
54-44 Obama (+1)
Ohio* - from 50-39 McCain to 46-45
McCain (+10)
Pennsylvania – from 54-42 Obama to 57-41
Obama (+4)
Virginia – from 55-37 Obama to 55-41
Obama (-4)
*Ohio's original polling was done in the
spring.
Pollster Celinda Lake informed NEA that
nationally Obama won union households by a margin of 59-39, and non-union
households by 51-47. Union households made up 21 percent of the electorate.
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner also compared
Obama's performance among NEA members in eight battleground states with that
of John Kerry in 2004.
Florida – Kerry 50%, Obama 57%
Iowa – Kerry 71%, Obama 72%
Michigan – Kerry 59%, Obama 64%
Minnesota – Kerry 74%, Obama 74%*
Nevada – Kerry 61%, Obama 63%
New Hampshire – Kerry 72%, Obama 75%
Ohio – Kerry 50%, Obama 57%
Pennsylvania – Kerry 58%, Obama 62%
* This figure is a discrepancy from the
previous figure for Obama in Minnesota, listed at 72%.
Additionally, only 8% of NEA voters
named education as their top concern in choosing a candidate (20% placed it
in the top two). The economy and jobs were by far their top issues.
This realization, plus the clear
indications of where President-elect Obama's early priorities will lie, led
NEA to the conclusion that its desire to "fix and fund" the No Child Left
Behind Act will not happen soon. The union's Government Relations department
also notes that Obama's "to-do list exceeds available resources."
With these facts in mind, NEA is
advising its activists to "be prepared to move our priorities on available
legislative vehicles, since we don't control [the] agenda/scheduling." Since
Obama's attention will be focused elsewhere, at least initially, NEA also
expects to work behind the scenes to "build/strengthen relationships with
key players" on education and labor issues. In particular, because of a lack
of a filibuster-proof Democratic majority in the U.S. Senate, NEA believes
"moderate Republicans will be key," naming Pennsylvania Sen. Arlen Specter
and Maine Sens. Susan Collins and Olympia Snowe.
EIA will provide
additional analysis of this material in next week's communiqué.
2) Last Week's Intercepts.
EIA's blog,
Intercepts, covered these topics from December 1-8:
*
I Am Spartacus! Steve Breen commits the last blasphemy.
*
A Treasure Trove of Ironies. Unrest along the
Dnieper.
*
Get the H Out of There. I side with the union on this one.
3) Quote of
the Week.
"It's cost-prohibitive for us to provide services to a student at one
building, a student at another, four at one and six at another. Our
liability insurance is $10,000 for the service, and then we have to pay rent
to each building. We can't go in the hole trying to provide tutoring." –
Columbus Education Association President Rhonda Johnson, explaining why the
union will no longer supply NCLB supplemental education services. (December
7
Columbus Dispatch) |
