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1) EIA Exclusive: More from
NEA's Post-Election Analysis. Last week, EIA
provided details of the efforts of the National Education Association to
persuade its members to vote for Barack Obama for President. The union
was successful in this regard, moving member support to Obama in virtually
all of the battleground states, according to internal NEA information and
presentations.
Using data from outside pollsters and
the union's own campaign and government lobbying operations, we are able to
paint a reasonably clear picture of how NEA officials targeted their message
to members, and what they expect to happen in the near future. While NEA is
justifiably proud of the margins it produced among members for Obama, the
union's success was very much a function of Obama's own appeal as a
candidate, and not measurably due to NEA efforts alone.
NEA's statistics compare Obama's 2008
performance in eight key battleground states against that of Democratic
candidate John Kerry in 2004. Obama met or exceeded Kerry's totals among NEA
members in each state. But how different was this result from the rest of
the voting public?
In only one state – Ohio – did Obama
have a larger improvement among NEA members than among non-NEA members. Here
is the breakdown:
Ohio – Obama +2 vs. Kerry overall, +7
among NEA members
Pennsylvania – Obama +4 overall, +4
among NEA members
Michigan – Obama +6 overall, +5 among
NEA members
Nevada – Obama +7 overall, +2 among NEA
members
Florida – Obama +4 overall, +2 among NEA
members
Iowa – Obama +5 overall, +1 among NEA
members
New Hampshire – Obama +4 overall, +3
among NEA members
Minnesota – Obama +3 overall, no change
among NEA members
NEA can take credit for keeping
independents and Hillary supporters on board and preventing anyone from
jumping ship to McCain, but Obama's improvement over Kerry in 2004 was part
of a general trend.
Ohio, however, is a completely different
story. Back in May, EIA reported that NEA members had a higher opinion of
McCain than they usually have of Republican candidates, and that
McCain was leading among NEA members in Ohio. Both the national and
state union took early action there and it paid off handsomely. NEA was able
to reduce McCain's support among members in Ohio by 8 points and increase
Obama's by 11 points.
Nationally, 41% of NEA Obama supporters
said they considered voting for McCain (34% of NEA McCain supporters said
they considered voting for Obama). At least initially, McCain's choice of
Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as vice presidential candidate stalled his slide
among NEA members. The union's campaign and elections team admitted, "The
Palin pick forced some voters (including our members) to take a second look
at McCain."
NEA was able to reverse any movement by
intensifying its strategy to tie McCain to George W. Bush. Virtually all of
NEA's campaign materials painted McCain as someone who would continue the
policies of the Bush administration, both on education and the economy.
No one was happier than NEA to see the
lengths of Obama's coattails in picking up Congressional seats, though the
union is realistic about the future, stating, "These margins and history
tell us that 2010 will present real challenges to progressives to hold these
majorities. I think even the DCCC [Democratic Congressional Campaign
Committee] would say there are some seats that were won that are 'rental
districts' and ones that are unlikely to be held in the 2010 cycle."
NEA is also fully aware that education
does not rank highly among the concerns of the American people and
President-elect Obama at the moment, but the union sees opportunities for
some of its priorities until such time as NCLB reauthorization is taken up.
Other than the likely delay in getting
some action on NCLB, the only area that could cause some early complications
for NEA is on the issue of charter schools. The union expects Obama to
double funding for the federal charter school program, and identifies chief
of staff Rahm Emanuel as "a big charter supporter."
Over the years, NEA's policy on charter
schools has covered all the bases: outright opposition, limitation,
reluctant acceptance, co-opting and unionizing, and
sponsoring its own charters. Such high profile support from a Democratic
administration may require a little more coherence in NEA's charter school
strategy.
In the current climate, it is clear that
the political battles over public education will rarely be Republican vs.
Democrat battles, but Democrat vs. Democrat battles. The disproportionate
commotion over the possible choices for Secretary of Education indicates
worry over which way the education policy winds are blowing, rather than the
merits of the individuals involved. Despite the victories of its chosen
candidates, NEA is as worried about those winds as any other organization.
BREAKING: New York Times reports
Obama has chosen
Arne Duncan as Secretary of Education. I expect NEA will say all the
right things publicly, but I have to believe this is a big disappointment
for the union.
2) Last Week's Intercepts.
EIA's blog,
Intercepts, covered these topics from December 8-15:
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Sympathy for Obama. NEA's wish list includes interest in such
education-vital positions as Under Secretary of Defense for Personnel and
Readiness, the Federal Election Commission, the Interstate Commerce
Commission, and the Department of Labor Agriculture Extension Service.
*
Great Moments in Journalism. Chicago Public Radio demonstrates what "All
Things Considered" really means.
*
Friends at Sidwell Friends. Where policymakers and pundits meet to
discuss the nation's public schools.
3) Quote of
the Week.
"HARRIS
re-stated ROD BLAGOJEVICH's thoughts that they should ask the
President-elect for something for ROD BLAGOJEVICH's financial security as
well as maintain his political viability. HARRIS said they could work out a
three-way deal with SEIU and the President-elect where SEIU could help the
President-elect with ROD BLAGOJEVICH's appointment of Senate Candidate 1 to
the vacant Senate seat, ROD BLAGOJEVICH would obtain a position as the
National Director of the Change to Win campaign, and SEIU would get
something favorable from the President-elect in the future."
– from
United States of America v. Rod R. Blagojevich, and John Harris,
page 64. |
