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1) 2010 Census Is Bad News for
Unions. According to estimates from Election Data
Services, the population figures from the 2010 census will lead to
two lost U.S. House seats in New York and two in Ohio, and a gain of two
seats for Florida and four for Texas. Each House seat is also equal to
one electoral vote.
Besides Florida and Texas, EDS estimates
six other states will gain a single House seat:
Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, South
Carolina, Utah and Washington.
The first point of interest is that of the eight states with
population growth sufficient to lead to increased congressional
representation, four (Florida, Texas, Nevada and Washington) have no state
income tax.
While the population trends have gone
from North and East to South and West for decades now, it may finally be
reaching the point where it adversely affects America's unions - not the
private sector industrial unions, which are a small and shrinking part of
the U.S. economy - but the public sector unions, which now constitute
the majority of union members.
Last March, the Cato Institute published
a table that detailed "Union
Shares of State and Local Government Employment." I reproduce it here:
If you can't read it clearly, New York
unions have the highest "market share" of state and local government
employees as members - 73 percent. And the rankings go all the way down to
North Carolina in 50th place with 8 percent.
Here are the public sector union share
percentages of the 10 states that lost seats in the census:
New York - 73%
Ohio - 44%
Illinois - 50%
Iowa - 31%
Louisiana - 13%
Massachusetts - 61%
Michigan - 58%
Missouri - 19%
New Jersey - 66%
Pennsylvania - 55%
The presence of Louisiana on the list is
undoubtedly due to the mass displacement caused by Hurricane Katrina. And
Missouri just barely lost a seat, to the benefit of Minnesota (55%).
Here are the public sector union share
percentages of the 8 states that gained seats in the census:
Texas - 14%
Florida - 25%
Arizona - 22%
Georgia - 10%
Nevada - 37%
South Carolina - 9%
Utah - 17%
Washington - 59%
In short, 12 House seats (and electoral
votes) went from states with an average government union share of 47 percent
to states with an average government union share of 24 percent.
It's much too simplistic to label this
cause-and-effect. But the numbers describe the "effect" part of the equation
clearly. People are not only moving from strong union states to weak union
states, but from strong government union states to weak ones.
With both short- and long-term trends
against them, organized labor really has but one weapon remaining: huge wads
of cash. That might be enough to stave off disaster.
2) All District Spending Tables
Posted (Finally!). Well, it seemed to take ages,
but tables detailing K-12 public school enrollment, teacher staffing,
per-pupil spending and compensation costs for each school district in all 50
states are finally
complete and updated on the EIA web site.
Now, before you ask, no, I don't have
comprehensive numbers more recent than 2007-08. The U.S. Department of
Education claims it will speed up its statistical publication schedule, but
who knows?
Next week I plan to have some analysis
of the numbers for the 100 largest school districts in the nation. Stay
tuned.
3) Cutting Out the Middleman.
Teachers running for office is nothing new, but there does seems to be a
growing trend of teacher union officers and employees entering the political
field.
EIA reported on a couple of instances in
North Carolina just two weeks ago (see
item #3). Add to those the candidacy of
former Arizona Education Association President Penny Kotterman for
superintendent of public instruction. Kotterman said the state's schools
need more funding and charter schools need more accountability.
In Simi Valley, California,
Arleigh Kidd is running for a seat on the school board. Kidd used to be
the local union president, but he is currently employed as an organizer for
the California Teachers Association.
Asked whether this constitutes a
conflict of interest, Kidd replied, "I
don't work for the local teachers' association, I work for the state. I work
for a public employees' union, but technically, I work for a private
employer."
4) Indiana State Teachers Association
Loses in Court Again. A couple of weeks ago,
Indiana Secretary of State Todd Rokita made headlines after asking how the
Indiana State Teachers Association came up with
$637,000 in PAC money while it still owes school districts $23 million
from its bankrupt health insurance trust.
After the article appeared, ISTA
suddenly became antsy about a deposition it was to give to Rokita's
investigators. The union asked the U.S. District Court to postpone the
deposition until after the election because Rokita is running for Congress
and " a pre-election deposition would cause embarrassment or annoyance
because Rokita could use ISTA's statements (or refusal to testify) as part
of his campaign."
Judge Tim Baker denied the union's
motion, ruling "ISTA cites no authority supporting entry of a protective
order under similar circumstances" and that the newspaper article was
"insufficient" to establish that Rokita was really after campaign fodder.
5) Hire the Misinformed!
McKinsey & Co., a management consulting firm, decided to look
at ways to
attract top graduates to work in education. The researchers learned that
part of the reason these students didn't consider teaching careers was
because of low pay.
Aha! Just what the unions have been
telling us for years. Except it turns out their perceptions of wage levels
are lower than the reality.
"More than
half of respondents believed that teachers' starting salaries were under
$30,000, when the national average is actually $39,000, comparable to what
25 percent of top-third students expect as starting salaries in their
preferred profession. Similarly, fully three-quarters of top-third students
not planning to teach believe that teachers' maximum salary is below the
current national average maximum of $67,000 per year -- and again a quarter
of these students expect to earn less than what teachers will earn at the
peak of their earning potential."
So who's most responsible for the
perception of terrible teacher salaries? And what does being so wrong about
it say about our "top graduates?"
6) Last Week's Intercepts.
EIA's blog,
Intercepts, covered these topics from September 21-27:
* Eating
Crow and Crowing Over Performance Pay. Justifying failure isn't
acceptable for either side.
*
Out to (School) Lunch. Locking the barn door after the horse has been
stolen and eaten.
*
Better Never Than Late. The press starts to wonder about edujobs.
*
New York District Offers Triple Substitute Pay for Laid Off Teachers.
Taking the sting out of layoffs.
*
Spelling Teachers for Murkwski! The write stuff.
7) Quote of the Week #1.
"I think the films are a blip. They will come and
go, but the union will still be there, our members will still be in these
schools. We don't see any advantage of going to war with documentarians."
- John Wilson, executive director of the National Education Association,
discussing the recent string of documentaries about public schools.
(September 24
Sacramento Bee)
Quote of the Week #2.
"Only 7 percent of American workers are in unions. America looks at us as
islands of privilege." - Randi Weingarten, president of the American
Federation of Teachers. (September 23
The Nation) |
