From Nate Silver in the New York Times:

Gov. Scott Walker of Wisconsin, a Republican, is likely to survive a recall election on June 5, according to recent nonpartisan polls of the state.

Mr. Walker leads his Democratic opponent, Mayor Tom Barrett of Milwaukee, by an average of six percentage points in those polls and has not trailed in any poll since February.

…Meanwhile, the collective bargaining issue that inspired the recall effort seems to have faded from memory and does not appear to be much of a burden for Mr. Walker. According to the Marquette poll, 50 percent of Wisconsin residents prefer the law as it is now under Mr. Walker, while 43 percent would prefer the old one.

Mr. Barrett has de-emphasized the collective bargaining issue, instead running a more traditional gubernatorial campaign.