Today’s Wall Street Journal has a piece on NEA president Lily Eskelsen García and her efforts on behalf of Hillary Clinton’s campaign. Nothing unusual in it, except the information that “based on the union’s internal analysis, its members support Mrs. Clinton over Mr. Trump by 36 percentage points.”
That’s a large margin, no question, but it’s actually comparable to how previous Republican presidential candidates have polled among the NEA membership – at least according to the post-election surveys I have managed to obtain over the years.
With that margin, Trump must be polling in the low-thirties among NEA’s rank-and-file, but Bob Dole managed only 31% of the NEA vote in 1996 and George W. Bush upped it to 34% in 2000. I’m not privy to how Bush did in 2004, or McCain and Romney in their bids for the White House, but I doubt they performed much better or worse.
I suppose this is both good and bad news for Trump – good in that despite his numerous failings and the intensity of NEA’s effort against him, he’s still on the same plateau; bad because he was supposed to make inroads among union members. And while NEA is a public employee union, the AFL-CIO today stated its poll of union members in battleground states show Trump with only 33 percent support.